Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#290
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#124
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#262
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 n/a
.500 or above 11.9% 13.0% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.9% 3.2% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 51.6% 49.6% 67.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 2.40.1 - 2.4
Quad 1b0.1 - 2.60.2 - 5.0
Quad 20.6 - 5.10.8 - 10.1
Quad 31.9 - 5.52.7 - 15.6
Quad 47.1 - 4.69.8 - 20.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 351   Delaware St. W 73-63 89%    
  Nov 09, 2018 176   James Madison L 68-74 38%    
  Nov 11, 2018 227   Lamar L 69-72 50%    
  Nov 16, 2018 113   @ Georgia Tech L 61-72 11%    
  Nov 19, 2018 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-76 66%    
  Nov 21, 2018 297   Prairie View W 76-75 63%    
  Nov 24, 2018 255   High Point L 68-70 54%    
  Nov 27, 2018 197   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-80 24%    
  Nov 30, 2018 175   Appalachian St. L 72-78 39%    
  Dec 02, 2018 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-65 80%    
  Dec 18, 2018 301   @ Charlotte W 76-75 43%    
  Dec 28, 2018 347   N.C. A&T W 77-69 82%    
  Jan 02, 2019 56   @ SMU L 60-76 6%    
  Jan 05, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 57-75 10%    
  Jan 10, 2019 101   @ Memphis L 66-77 12%    
  Jan 13, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 58-74 5%    
  Jan 16, 2019 72   Temple L 65-79 18%    
  Jan 23, 2019 37   @ Houston L 63-81 4%    
  Jan 26, 2019 250   South Florida L 67-69 53%    
  Jan 31, 2019 195   Tulane L 71-76 42%    
  Feb 03, 2019 96   @ Connecticut L 65-77 10%    
  Feb 06, 2019 81   Wichita St. L 67-80 20%    
  Feb 10, 2019 250   @ South Florida L 67-69 33%    
  Feb 13, 2019 101   Memphis L 66-77 26%    
  Feb 17, 2019 98   Tulsa L 66-78 24%    
  Feb 23, 2019 195   @ Tulane L 71-76 25%    
  Feb 27, 2019 37   Houston L 63-81 11%    
  Mar 03, 2019 98   @ Tulsa L 66-78 12%    
  Mar 05, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. L 67-80 9%    
  Mar 10, 2019 96   Connecticut L 65-77 23%    
Projected Record 9.8 - 20.2 3.4 - 14.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 5.5 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.8 5.9 9.6 7.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 26.2 11th
12th 7.5 13.8 11.4 5.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 39.4 12th
Total 7.5 14.6 17.4 17.0 14.6 10.6 7.8 4.6 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 6.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 87.1% 87.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 5.6% 5.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 5.6%
12-6 0.2% 8.7% 8.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-11 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
3-15 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.9
2-16 17.4% 17.4
1-17 14.6% 14.6
0-18 7.5% 7.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%